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1999 Estimates of Substance Abuse


The State Tables of Model-Based Estimates is a collection of tables presenting estimates of substance use-related measures for the 50 States and the District of Columbia. These estimates are generated using data collected in the 1999 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA). With the exception of the sample size and population estimates (Table 1), these estimates were generated using a method called Small Area Estimation (SAE), which was developed to provide reasonably precise State-level prevalence estimates on drug use. Estimates are based on a survey- weighted hierarchical Bayes estimation approach, and the prediction intervals are generated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. A description of this methodology, validation, and data limitations can be found in Appendix G of the report,  Youth Substance Use:  State Estimates From the 1999 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

This collection of tables includes model-based estimates for the following selected measures:

The estimates for past month use of any illicit drug, marijuana, any illicit drug other than marijuana, cigarettes, and "binge" alcohol use have been revised and may differ from those previously released in the 1999 Summary of Findings report and the supplemental 1999 NHSDA tables available from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA). Estimates for the other seven measures listed above are being newly released.

During the processing of the 2000 NHSDA data, an error was discovered in the computer programs that assigned imputed values for recency of use, frequency of use, and age at first use of several drugs on the 1999 data file. Estimates of lifetime use of substances were unaffected, but estimates of past year and past month use were affected by the error. The effects are noticeable for only four of the substances (alcohol, marijuana, inhalants, and heroin), in addition to the composite measures "any illicit drug" and "any illicit drug other than marijuana." For these substances, all of the revised national estimates were lower than the previously reported ones. For inhalants, the revised national estimates were considerably lower. More details concerning the 1999 imputation error, how the error was discovered, and the corrective actions taken can be found in Appendix B of the Summary of Findings from the 2000 NHSDA. Revised 1999 national estimates can be found both in this report and the supplemental 2000 NHSDA tables.

The 1999 imputation error affects State-level, as well as national estimates; thus, previously released State estimates have been regenerated using the corrected 1999 data. State-level estimates were previously released for seven critical measures, of which only five were affected and regenerated as noted above. The two previously released measures unaffected by the imputation error include past year dependence on illicit drugs and past year dependence on illicit drugs or alcohol. In addition to regenerating estimates for the affected measures, estimates for seven new measures were also generated. All estimates included in this collection are based on the corrected 1999 data and should be used rather than previously published NHSDA State-level estimates.

Table Organization

Tables 1 to 13 are numbered using a two-part numbering scheme (e.g., 1A). The first part of the table number (1A) is the actual number of the table. The second part (1A) is a table-type indicator, an alphabetic letter appended to the table number that indicates the type of estimates displayed in the table. Tables 1 to 13 contain multiple table types for each table number. Tables 14 to 64 do not include table-type indicators because these tables display multiple types of estimates in one table.

The table numbers are grouped as follows:

Locating a Table

A list of tables and a table index have been provided to assist a user in locating a specific table of interest within this set of State tables. Within the list of tables, links are provided between each title and the corresponding table. The table index categorizes the information contained in each table in tabular form. Tables 1 to 13 are listed on page one of the index and Tables 14 to 64 on page two. Within the table index, links to the corresponding tables are not available.

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This page was last updated on June 16, 2008.